* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 36 36 36 37 39 38 41 43 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 36 36 36 37 39 38 41 43 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 42 44 45 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 10 7 4 5 11 14 23 23 24 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 2 4 10 8 7 8 3 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 280 271 277 288 243 221 264 279 302 294 314 294 294 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 143 146 145 144 145 144 145 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 132 130 131 130 126 123 125 124 126 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 69 67 66 66 65 60 56 51 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 12 15 13 8 4 15 22 35 30 34 22 200 MB DIV 31 44 41 48 35 26 32 4 19 11 13 4 5 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -9 -7 -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1590 1593 1609 1632 1654 1689 1691 1691 1684 1692 1705 1719 1719 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.3 46.4 47.1 47.8 48.6 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.9 48.9 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 7 4 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 18 23 23 19 21 21 21 20 21 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED