* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 31 33 37 41 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 31 33 37 41 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 33 29 28 33 29 34 43 38 32 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 2 3 5 5 10 11 0 7 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 256 253 248 249 271 259 249 240 218 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.5 26.1 24.9 24.0 22.8 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 155 151 140 125 113 104 91 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 59 58 56 52 52 53 52 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 19 20 18 15 13 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 79 80 65 61 48 48 53 75 77 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 70 90 82 77 68 53 73 65 72 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 17 23 30 35 43 41 46 53 25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1466 1412 1369 1344 1338 1416 1577 1790 2030 2293 2162 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.9 23.0 24.4 25.8 28.2 30.6 33.1 35.5 37.8 39.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.9 173.5 173.1 172.7 172.3 172.1 172.4 173.0 173.9 175.2 176.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 13 12 13 12 13 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 52 42 29 17 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -13. -24. -35. -39. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 9. 5. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 1. 5. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 6. -1. -10. -16. -16. -16. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##