* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 45 45 46 48 48 47 50 52 55 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 45 45 46 48 48 47 50 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 47 50 52 53 53 52 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 7 4 1 5 9 20 22 23 19 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 4 9 13 9 12 10 3 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 273 281 281 258 242 240 275 298 298 311 308 290 281 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 144 147 148 148 147 146 146 148 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 132 132 132 129 127 125 125 125 127 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 67 67 67 64 59 55 52 50 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 15 17 16 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 8 14 14 4 19 27 46 43 41 22 16 200 MB DIV 53 39 44 33 35 46 47 8 1 5 12 5 15 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -5 -2 0 0 2 0 0 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1618 1646 1676 1707 1719 1726 1740 1740 1733 1733 1740 1739 1739 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.1 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.4 47.3 47.8 48.4 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 49.1 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 21 19 17 23 24 24 23 23 24 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 10. 12. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED