* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 30 32 32 25 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 30 32 32 25 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 26 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 28 30 33 31 29 36 31 23 27 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 3 3 6 8 8 7 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 252 253 250 258 258 261 253 232 241 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.0 25.4 24.6 23.5 22.2 17.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 151 145 135 118 110 99 87 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -55.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 61 61 62 61 55 54 48 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 14 15 13 10 9 11 11 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 70 72 60 46 40 6 28 64 63 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 82 68 57 52 68 41 90 93 89 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 13 21 18 19 15 7 29 44 51 37 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1414 1364 1332 1327 1339 1469 1670 1905 2176 2260 1832 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 23.0 24.3 25.6 26.9 29.2 31.9 34.1 36.2 39.2 43.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.5 173.0 172.6 172.3 171.9 172.1 172.5 173.6 175.3 177.6 180.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 15 20 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 42 28 17 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 16. 17. 17. 15. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -12. -21. -29. -34. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -6. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. -5. -12. -13. -17. -16. -18. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##