* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 35 35 30 39 37 38 28 23 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 5 6 6 7 5 4 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 253 260 264 267 264 256 247 235 239 206 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.7 26.1 24.6 23.2 22.0 18.2 12.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 147 142 127 111 96 84 64 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.6 -54.2 -55.3 -54.8 -55.8 -56.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 60 60 62 62 61 52 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 58 47 41 11 2 9 32 10 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 62 48 45 79 30 78 75 79 55 59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 22 10 10 2 7 63 55 33 19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1380 1354 1341 1359 1392 1583 1862 2190 2210 2045 1445 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.1 25.2 26.5 27.7 30.7 34.0 36.9 39.4 42.5 46.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.2 172.9 172.5 172.3 172.1 172.4 173.1 174.7 176.9 179.6 182.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 16 16 15 17 20 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 31 21 16 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 14. 14. 13. 11. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -14. -25. -35. -40. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 11. 18. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -24. -24. -26. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##