* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 40 46 51 54 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 40 46 51 54 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 24 24 26 29 34 40 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 8 8 5 1 5 3 2 4 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -5 -6 -4 -1 -4 -4 -5 -6 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 124 147 161 173 184 214 238 332 331 344 12 338 326 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 158 157 156 154 151 149 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 68 69 69 69 66 64 65 64 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 13 22 30 35 32 28 14 22 37 45 52 200 MB DIV 14 18 43 55 56 61 51 34 17 24 41 24 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1768 1689 1611 1527 1444 1287 1147 1015 907 845 793 748 658 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.4 143.2 144.0 144.7 146.0 147.1 148.0 148.6 148.8 149.0 149.2 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 22 22 24 32 35 24 20 21 22 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 4. 6. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 26. 31. 34. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##