* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 53 56 54 53 53 51 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 53 56 54 53 53 51 52 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 52 55 58 58 55 53 51 50 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 9 12 19 30 27 27 18 16 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 7 9 9 6 1 0 8 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 261 258 258 266 284 286 295 298 305 299 292 283 290 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 145 146 146 145 142 142 144 147 153 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 130 127 127 126 126 124 122 126 130 136 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 67 63 59 57 52 50 50 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 16 17 18 17 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 3 -3 0 18 26 39 45 33 21 6 1 200 MB DIV 18 19 33 33 49 43 -14 -2 2 15 -7 22 11 700-850 TADV -4 -2 1 -2 0 2 -1 0 -2 1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1701 1738 1766 1782 1798 1821 1819 1807 1801 1846 1899 1913 1850 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.3 20.9 20.6 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 47.6 48.0 48.1 48.1 47.9 47.6 47.3 47.2 47.1 47.2 47.9 48.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 3 2 1 2 1 1 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 17 18 17 16 15 15 15 16 20 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 9. 8. 8. 6. 7. 8. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/21/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)