* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 38 35 29 30 35 33 29 24 11 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 4 4 6 9 12 3 6 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 259 267 266 266 263 260 236 237 247 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.2 25.6 24.3 22.7 19.8 14.2 11.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 148 142 137 121 108 92 64 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.7 -54.1 -55.0 -55.2 -57.3 -58.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 59 59 57 54 54 48 51 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 60 50 47 43 12 29 43 20 -29 -35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 46 46 60 45 39 117 52 67 28 63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 27 12 12 18 4 58 52 46 26 42 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1255 1253 1265 1329 1404 1658 1942 2280 2035 1836 1283 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.1 26.2 27.5 28.8 31.6 34.7 38.0 41.5 45.1 48.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.9 171.7 171.4 171.5 171.6 172.6 173.5 175.2 177.5 179.9 182.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 19 19 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 20 18 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 13. 11. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -12. -22. -30. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 5. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -10. -16. -22. -23. -21. -21. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##