* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 28 32 37 45 51 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 28 32 37 45 51 56 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 30 36 43 50 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 8 7 1 1 8 4 3 4 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -6 -5 -3 -2 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 137 156 166 168 174 202 278 11 77 23 23 348 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 158 157 156 153 150 149 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 69 70 69 66 64 63 62 62 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 9 11 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 11 19 26 30 28 18 18 29 49 50 68 200 MB DIV 24 46 66 64 67 55 56 3 20 28 21 20 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1725 1643 1562 1483 1404 1264 1139 1031 962 926 899 865 792 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.2 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 142.1 142.9 143.7 144.4 145.1 146.2 147.1 147.7 147.9 147.9 147.9 148.0 148.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 22 23 25 33 35 25 21 22 24 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 31. 36. 38. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##