* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 27 24 21 18 17 16 19 19 19 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 27 24 21 18 17 16 19 19 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 35 32 30 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 39 32 29 33 34 31 16 2 12 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 7 7 -2 5 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 270 271 266 267 263 236 237 168 124 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.6 24.7 21.9 18.0 14.0 11.8 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 140 136 131 114 86 67 65 63 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -55.5 -56.8 -58.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 59 57 57 54 60 66 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 38 33 31 17 17 74 83 102 95 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 31 43 41 31 90 43 62 46 49 56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 13 10 15 15 29 70 26 22 40 33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1201 1234 1279 1372 1472 1763 2311 1921 1316 972 911 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 32.6 37.1 41.3 45.0 48.3 51.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.2 171.2 171.6 172.0 173.1 176.3 181.5 186.9 188.3 185.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 15 22 27 28 21 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 17 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 39.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -12. -17. -23. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 11. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 30. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -16. -16. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 39.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##