* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 33 43 52 58 65 68 72 74 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 33 43 52 58 65 68 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 28 33 41 51 61 69 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 7 4 5 8 13 12 15 14 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 149 161 164 169 160 111 39 54 64 54 56 48 29 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 159 159 158 157 155 152 153 153 154 152 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 70 71 71 68 65 64 62 63 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 12 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 6 10 13 18 13 11 18 30 35 40 39 200 MB DIV 47 56 60 69 69 74 43 23 28 29 31 20 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1729 1644 1560 1490 1421 1299 1202 1118 1092 1107 1116 1071 1006 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.0 11.9 11.8 12.0 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.2 144.1 144.8 145.6 146.7 147.6 148.2 148.2 148.1 148.1 148.5 148.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 0 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 18 18 17 22 27 28 28 28 28 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 23. 32. 38. 45. 48. 52. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##