* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162015 09/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 25 28 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 36 43 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 225 223 235 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 30.6 28.5 24.8 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 174 152 113 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 7 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 16 18 28 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 62 99 63 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 51 -97 -188 -344 -520 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 30.1 31.6 33.1 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 111.7 111.1 110.2 109.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -4. -16. -30. -44. -53. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -2. -3. -8. -16. -27. -38. -46. -51. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162015 SIXTEEN 09/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162015 SIXTEEN 09/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##