* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 46 43 42 45 41 39 42 47 51 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 46 43 42 45 41 39 42 47 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 40 38 38 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 18 26 30 26 23 19 19 11 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 10 10 11 4 5 5 7 2 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 222 255 278 284 292 297 295 292 297 301 315 284 268 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 146 146 144 139 138 140 146 151 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 127 127 126 126 126 121 120 122 128 133 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 66 64 59 54 50 45 45 48 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 17 18 21 19 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 4 14 19 33 56 64 41 33 24 18 4 200 MB DIV 66 44 37 31 27 -21 17 29 24 9 6 17 16 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 0 3 -5 0 0 6 -1 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1751 1773 1796 1815 1835 1847 1839 1863 1908 1936 1938 1916 1899 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.2 20.7 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.4 48.3 48.1 47.9 47.5 46.8 46.5 46.6 47.0 47.5 48.1 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 18 15 12 12 13 16 20 28 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 822 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. 0. -4. -6. -3. 2. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/21/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)