* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 32 41 40 28 22 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 32 41 40 28 22 23 22 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 35 33 31 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 30 29 34 35 24 11 16 15 2 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 6 6 8 0 2 -1 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 269 261 263 263 233 251 168 64 80 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.2 25.4 22.6 17.5 14.7 14.1 12.1 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 127 122 97 67 61 62 67 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -55.2 -56.5 -57.0 -57.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 57 58 57 60 65 57 69 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 10 15 16 12 9 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 48 26 18 110 149 132 67 89 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 45 40 35 41 90 37 56 30 49 192 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 22 18 16 9 32 13 56 27 38 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1241 1360 1484 1570 1667 2424 1532 1265 1415 1101 196 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.4 28.5 30.0 31.4 36.4 41.5 44.0 45.2 48.3 53.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.1 171.9 172.7 172.8 172.9 178.6 188.6 189.6 184.7 185.8 195.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 23 40 28 11 13 28 40 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 9 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 12. 9. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 35. 36. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. 0. 2. -4. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. 6. 5. -7. -13. -12. -13. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##