* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 45 54 62 70 74 78 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 45 54 62 70 74 78 80 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 40 47 57 69 80 90 98 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 7 6 4 10 10 6 8 9 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -6 -6 -4 -3 -6 -5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 151 156 154 128 140 100 49 84 54 59 42 27 333 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 158 156 154 153 152 152 152 152 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 73 72 69 64 63 63 64 63 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 14 12 22 20 15 17 20 35 37 48 52 200 MB DIV 63 71 82 85 76 71 37 53 36 46 32 31 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 LAND (KM) 1690 1605 1521 1451 1381 1279 1194 1157 1174 1184 1163 1102 1035 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.3 14.1 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.5 144.3 144.9 145.5 146.2 146.6 146.5 146.2 146.0 146.0 146.1 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 19 20 26 32 32 33 33 32 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 37. 45. 49. 53. 55. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##