* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 38 38 37 35 36 38 42 47 51 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 38 38 37 35 36 38 42 47 51 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 37 38 39 37 34 32 32 33 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 19 21 27 27 28 17 17 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 8 8 12 4 3 4 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 250 275 283 290 293 303 309 310 299 302 272 291 284 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 150 151 149 145 142 145 149 154 158 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 130 133 131 127 123 127 131 135 138 140 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 61 59 54 52 46 42 43 45 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 18 20 20 18 17 16 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 8 13 25 44 67 57 42 29 24 7 -1 200 MB DIV 33 26 23 28 22 11 -16 0 22 18 9 4 20 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 -5 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1716 1735 1754 1777 1802 1816 1858 1876 1877 1868 1853 1857 1874 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.1 21.1 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.7 24.7 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 49.4 49.3 48.8 48.4 47.8 47.3 47.4 47.9 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 3 4 4 3 1 3 4 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 30 25 20 16 15 16 20 27 31 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 841 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. 2. 7. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)