* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 39 36 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 39 36 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 30 29 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 35 39 37 36 21 4 9 9 3 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 5 9 6 4 1 -3 5 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 265 264 260 256 231 297 65 110 168 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.6 24.7 22.2 17.6 14.9 13.1 11.7 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 131 121 114 90 66 62 62 65 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -54.3 -55.1 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 -57.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 56 54 53 55 58 64 73 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 11 11 16 16 13 11 10 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 31 24 46 92 58 39 74 130 139 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 25 34 31 92 33 49 25 48 49 174 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 25 26 15 21 37 17 36 25 34 50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1357 1463 1573 1708 1848 2393 1826 1444 1259 939 463 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.3 29.4 30.9 32.4 36.9 41.4 44.3 46.2 49.3 54.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.0 172.6 173.2 173.8 174.4 177.7 183.1 185.6 186.1 187.4 190.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 21 29 24 13 13 21 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 8. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 22. 30. 37. 38. 37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. 2. 3. -1. -5. -6. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. 5. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 1. -11. -20. -19. -12. -12. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##