* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 41 51 61 69 74 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 41 51 61 69 74 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 38 47 58 70 82 91 97 103 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 10 10 8 13 11 14 12 12 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -7 -7 -4 -6 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 138 128 103 117 121 63 61 59 57 72 85 100 106 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 157 156 154 154 153 154 154 154 152 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 71 73 71 69 66 60 61 61 59 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 13 14 23 19 15 20 24 28 30 52 48 200 MB DIV 60 71 75 77 80 58 47 51 50 31 -6 6 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1545 1479 1414 1368 1322 1245 1197 1195 1210 1210 1164 1101 1007 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.4 145.0 145.7 146.1 146.5 147.1 147.3 147.1 146.9 146.9 147.2 147.5 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 3 1 1 0 1 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 19 21 25 29 30 30 30 32 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 36. 44. 49. 52. 54. 57. 60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##