* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 42 42 42 42 42 48 50 53 57 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 42 42 42 42 42 48 50 53 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 39 39 40 37 35 34 36 39 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 16 18 24 25 23 17 18 12 17 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 10 10 7 2 8 6 0 2 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 269 281 285 286 292 309 295 297 297 271 277 259 250 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 145 142 136 136 141 148 153 156 156 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 130 130 126 119 119 125 132 134 136 134 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 58 56 52 51 48 45 46 48 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 20 23 22 22 22 20 22 21 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 4 15 26 43 55 42 20 25 6 3 -7 200 MB DIV 21 35 40 21 17 11 2 28 13 23 3 18 36 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 0 1 7 3 3 1 3 -2 1 6 LAND (KM) 1756 1779 1804 1821 1821 1828 1877 1942 1995 2005 1985 1988 2006 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.8 48.5 48.2 47.7 47.2 46.4 46.0 46.1 46.7 47.2 47.7 48.0 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 5 3 3 4 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 16 13 10 10 14 19 25 37 43 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 4. 3. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 8. 10. 13. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)