* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 33 35 40 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 33 35 40 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 30 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 38 37 34 14 5 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 7 10 2 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 268 263 254 236 239 301 80 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.0 24.7 23.4 20.8 17.7 14.9 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 127 115 101 73 64 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -55.1 -56.6 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 53 51 52 48 55 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 11 12 13 19 17 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 31 22 62 87 96 58 34 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 27 26 90 121 50 45 23 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 25 14 16 47 39 10 22 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1392 1536 1684 1912 2145 2418 1865 1491 1103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.9 30.2 32.3 34.4 38.5 41.5 44.4 47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.2 173.1 174.0 175.3 176.6 179.6 182.2 184.6 187.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 19 24 24 21 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -6. -5. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -11. -18. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 9. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 17. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 3. -6. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. 5. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -2. 0. 5. -2. -17. -27. -31. -33. -34. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##