* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 54 59 64 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 54 59 64 65 69 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 48 57 66 74 80 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 13 9 8 10 11 13 13 10 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -9 -10 -9 -6 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 112 104 120 126 123 54 68 68 71 57 66 40 56 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 157 155 153 153 153 153 152 151 149 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 68 67 63 63 63 62 62 62 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 14 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 13 19 24 15 21 27 33 34 40 45 53 200 MB DIV 64 64 64 80 79 54 58 40 51 28 17 24 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1459 1397 1336 1290 1244 1159 1111 1102 1117 1093 1038 985 938 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.0 145.6 146.2 146.6 147.0 147.6 147.8 147.7 147.5 147.6 147.8 147.8 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 21 24 26 29 29 29 30 29 25 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 29. 34. 39. 40. 44. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##