* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 41 43 44 44 46 49 53 57 62 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 41 43 44 44 46 49 53 57 62 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 40 39 37 36 37 39 44 50 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 24 25 30 24 26 18 18 10 11 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 0 4 0 1 1 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 287 284 285 283 291 299 304 284 298 278 296 234 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 139 136 134 136 139 144 149 153 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 123 119 117 119 122 126 130 134 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 55 55 50 45 44 46 47 47 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 20 21 21 22 23 22 22 22 23 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 21 34 52 68 65 56 42 40 38 38 50 200 MB DIV 41 49 30 25 10 -4 41 21 7 28 22 34 13 700-850 TADV 5 6 0 1 4 0 7 7 3 2 0 2 14 LAND (KM) 1792 1816 1821 1817 1814 1823 1882 1937 1963 1947 1930 1930 2002 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.9 24.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.2 46.8 46.5 46.1 45.9 46.0 46.5 47.2 47.8 48.1 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 12 11 9 8 8 11 14 16 22 25 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED