* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 09/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 41 39 33 28 22 21 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 41 34 29 29 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 27 28 29 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 33 39 40 39 45 41 49 42 47 37 35 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -4 -8 -6 -8 -2 -5 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 204 195 204 213 218 226 226 235 240 250 266 278 300 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.2 22.7 22.4 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 127 122 118 109 104 100 96 90 88 87 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 104 99 96 89 86 83 80 76 75 74 73 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -55.5 -56.0 -57.0 -57.4 -57.9 -56.9 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 48 45 44 48 53 61 59 50 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 10 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 -6 -20 -14 -26 -43 -43 -20 -44 -50 -75 -91 200 MB DIV 26 19 8 3 17 1 10 1 25 22 1 10 -5 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 2 1 3 1 14 4 5 7 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 304 246 204 180 155 97 -10 -150 -234 -322 -435 -567 -684 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.5 35.2 35.7 36.2 36.9 37.5 38.3 39.1 39.7 39.9 40.2 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 73.5 73.7 73.9 74.1 74.8 75.8 77.1 78.1 79.0 80.3 81.8 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 4 6 6 5 4 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 2. -7. -16. -23. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -2. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 3. -2. -8. -9. -8. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 09/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 09/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 09/22/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED