* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 45 54 60 64 70 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 45 54 60 64 70 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 43 51 61 71 79 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 8 3 7 8 10 12 9 9 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -10 -9 -6 -3 -5 -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 98 109 121 131 113 37 61 65 74 66 54 62 2 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 158 155 153 152 151 150 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 65 62 64 63 63 62 63 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 1 11 6 6 13 24 33 33 43 43 43 200 MB DIV 66 59 52 55 40 43 63 60 49 33 32 21 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1475 1409 1344 1283 1223 1116 1032 978 943 879 811 741 693 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 145.1 145.7 146.2 146.8 147.3 148.1 148.7 149.1 149.5 150.1 150.6 151.0 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 21 23 27 32 32 31 31 31 32 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 20. 29. 35. 39. 45. 49. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##