* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 42 44 43 46 48 52 56 60 61 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 42 44 43 46 48 52 56 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 40 39 37 37 38 41 46 52 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 30 26 22 22 20 17 9 13 4 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 4 6 4 2 2 2 0 1 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 280 279 296 295 293 292 297 281 294 280 262 241 211 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 140 136 133 138 140 145 150 155 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 124 124 121 118 123 122 127 132 135 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 51 49 46 42 44 46 47 49 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 21 22 22 19 21 20 21 22 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR -1 15 32 49 57 65 55 42 36 31 25 12 44 200 MB DIV 36 5 -2 24 24 12 29 9 12 9 25 23 47 700-850 TADV 3 -3 -1 -2 4 4 9 5 5 1 2 8 3 LAND (KM) 1766 1804 1832 1822 1814 1841 1946 2001 2021 2029 2018 2028 2059 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.6 20.3 20.2 21.2 21.9 22.3 23.0 24.3 25.2 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.2 46.8 46.5 45.7 45.6 45.9 46.3 46.8 47.3 47.5 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 3 4 5 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 11 9 8 11 15 17 21 32 46 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 4. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)