* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 09/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 37 34 28 22 17 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 37 29 28 28 29 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 34 38 38 37 43 42 44 46 46 43 36 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -3 -6 -9 -4 -4 0 -5 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 198 208 216 226 224 232 228 250 249 262 267 285 297 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.8 23.4 22.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 126 122 116 111 105 101 96 94 92 90 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 103 99 95 91 87 84 80 79 78 77 74 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 -55.9 -56.4 -57.2 -57.6 -57.6 -56.9 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 3 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 56 51 49 47 44 45 51 55 63 58 50 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -12 -20 -7 -19 -46 -26 -42 -26 -46 -87 -124 -135 200 MB DIV 27 11 6 10 1 -10 10 23 9 4 0 -2 -16 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 4 1 10 9 13 12 -5 14 -1 18 LAND (KM) 247 196 157 118 90 10 -82 -197 -297 -364 -492 -632 -758 LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.4 35.0 35.5 35.9 36.4 37.1 37.7 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.5 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.1 74.3 74.6 74.9 75.7 76.9 78.0 78.8 79.6 81.1 82.7 84.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 17 7 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -7. -16. -23. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -8. -13. -12. -16. -19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 09/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 09/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 09/22/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)