* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 09/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 34 35 32 26 21 18 16 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 34 35 29 28 28 29 29 29 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 32 33 35 37 46 43 51 40 39 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -7 -6 -2 -7 -1 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 206 216 226 225 228 232 234 244 247 258 265 280 306 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.5 25.0 24.3 23.5 22.9 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 126 123 116 107 103 98 93 89 86 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 106 102 100 95 89 86 82 79 76 73 73 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.6 -57.0 -57.6 -56.8 -56.3 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 47 45 50 53 61 62 61 55 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 7 6 4 6 8 10 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -18 -6 -14 -20 -39 -32 -23 -51 -42 -69 -82 -80 200 MB DIV 12 -1 11 4 1 4 0 33 33 19 15 6 -4 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 0 2 2 11 7 21 20 20 10 26 LAND (KM) 276 233 192 155 125 36 -66 -168 -284 -415 -522 -613 -633 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.8 36.5 37.4 38.2 38.9 39.6 40.4 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.1 74.2 74.4 74.6 75.5 76.6 77.8 78.8 80.2 81.4 82.3 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 23 19 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -6. -15. -22. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. -4. -9. -12. -14. -14. -19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 09/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 09/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 09/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)