* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 32 38 43 44 45 42 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 32 38 43 44 45 42 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 32 35 37 37 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 3 3 3 3 2 5 11 17 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -3 -2 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 124 162 195 290 320 338 38 164 198 206 225 244 256 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 154 152 149 148 145 143 138 135 130 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 61 60 60 59 59 60 62 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 1 0 2 8 12 28 31 35 35 33 45 200 MB DIV 70 49 31 24 42 51 53 38 30 10 23 2 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1350 1292 1234 1188 1142 1061 1010 937 834 758 716 739 770 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.4 145.8 146.1 146.3 146.5 146.8 147.0 147.4 148.0 148.3 148.3 147.9 147.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 30 31 31 27 25 25 26 27 30 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 19. 20. 17. 14. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##