* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 35 35 36 39 41 45 48 52 53 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 35 35 36 39 41 45 48 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 31 30 29 30 32 35 39 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 24 19 20 15 17 8 15 6 14 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 3 0 1 -1 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 292 300 301 304 292 289 295 300 285 269 277 253 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 136 135 136 138 143 150 153 156 154 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 119 119 119 120 120 125 132 134 133 129 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 51 48 48 48 43 46 47 48 50 53 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 20 17 16 15 13 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 34 47 57 61 42 30 18 13 5 0 15 -7 200 MB DIV -20 -7 15 11 2 32 6 13 6 4 20 17 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 1 4 8 0 2 0 0 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1801 1795 1789 1806 1823 1911 1966 2025 2075 2061 2041 2039 2043 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.3 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.9 21.4 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.5 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 46.9 46.6 46.4 46.1 45.7 45.6 45.8 46.3 46.8 47.3 47.5 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 8 9 11 18 26 33 43 44 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)