* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 50 53 56 55 53 47 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 50 53 56 55 53 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 45 47 45 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 4 4 2 3 1 7 12 22 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -6 -7 -6 -6 0 0 0 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 160 189 333 360 345 16 109 186 175 208 215 242 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 154 153 151 149 146 144 140 135 129 125 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 61 60 59 58 58 58 59 54 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 0 1 6 14 26 35 40 34 40 42 47 200 MB DIV 66 35 22 25 39 55 72 41 39 8 18 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1326 1268 1210 1160 1110 1020 945 850 759 713 725 788 858 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.0 146.3 146.6 146.8 147.2 147.6 148.1 148.4 148.4 148.0 147.3 146.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 31 32 31 26 24 25 27 29 35 22 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 9. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 25. 28. 31. 30. 28. 22. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##