* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 39 42 45 47 51 52 54 53 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 39 42 45 47 51 52 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 35 38 43 47 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 23 21 22 22 17 16 10 13 13 17 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 1 0 1 1 0 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 298 302 302 295 289 284 315 284 300 251 268 254 260 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 136 135 136 139 142 147 153 157 156 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 120 119 119 122 125 129 134 137 134 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 50 47 47 47 45 44 44 45 45 49 53 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 17 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 33 45 58 62 58 47 35 31 26 27 36 29 9 200 MB DIV -14 15 9 18 19 26 2 20 -6 23 0 12 -2 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 5 10 2 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1751 1767 1784 1806 1828 1893 1939 1948 1933 1930 1987 2034 2043 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.2 23.0 24.0 25.1 25.6 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 46.9 46.5 46.3 46.2 46.3 46.6 47.1 47.8 48.1 47.9 47.6 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 9 8 10 13 16 22 25 41 43 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 17. 19. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/23/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED