* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 53 59 60 57 53 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 53 59 60 57 53 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 45 50 51 49 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 5 4 5 4 2 2 6 11 16 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -7 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 7 17 9 21 357 35 40 181 244 231 252 253 258 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 154 153 151 149 148 146 146 145 145 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 62 62 59 59 62 59 59 58 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 -1 2 10 19 21 31 30 25 27 36 24 200 MB DIV 30 31 33 42 51 69 20 39 11 7 2 4 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1241 1187 1133 1078 1024 932 818 688 563 468 437 398 390 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 146.6 147.0 147.4 147.8 148.2 148.9 149.8 150.7 151.4 151.8 152.0 152.2 152.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 32 31 30 27 28 29 37 51 52 51 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 34. 35. 32. 28. 26. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##