* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 38 42 44 44 39 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 38 42 44 44 39 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 28 31 32 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 7 6 6 4 10 14 14 13 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -8 -7 -6 -5 -3 -5 -4 -2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 256 194 225 227 226 213 217 212 207 208 178 197 218 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 158 157 158 159 160 162 161 162 162 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 81 79 78 75 75 75 76 74 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 10 12 11 8 3 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 38 36 31 28 20 31 34 31 31 27 18 200 MB DIV 112 112 104 82 67 92 80 98 110 103 75 56 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 333 338 333 332 335 352 383 300 240 187 120 59 21 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.9 94.0 95.1 96.1 96.8 97.5 98.0 98.2 98.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 26 33 38 38 37 40 50 67 69 63 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 24. 19. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/23/15 18 UTC ## ##