* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 48 49 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 48 49 51 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 36 39 42 46 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 24 19 20 17 17 15 17 15 20 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 281 279 278 268 270 290 267 295 263 274 244 259 266 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 137 138 145 151 153 155 155 155 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 120 121 122 129 133 132 132 132 131 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 42 41 38 40 43 45 50 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 14 13 11 10 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 69 69 66 57 55 39 34 14 10 4 18 6 -6 200 MB DIV 2 8 16 30 15 6 10 4 13 2 0 -11 8 700-850 TADV 1 3 10 9 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1774 1813 1852 1894 1936 1992 2005 1986 1998 1986 1960 1949 1945 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.2 22.0 23.1 23.9 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.6 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.1 45.9 45.8 45.8 46.3 47.1 47.5 47.5 47.8 48.3 48.5 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 6 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 11 13 16 18 20 25 33 34 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/24/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)