* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 54 60 61 54 52 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 54 60 61 54 52 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 48 48 46 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 10 11 7 5 2 4 10 14 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -6 -8 -5 -2 0 6 2 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 4 354 352 356 16 32 35 350 265 259 250 270 269 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 152 151 150 150 150 150 149 148 149 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 59 59 60 61 62 62 62 64 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 14 11 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 -2 8 9 8 20 19 18 13 32 42 46 200 MB DIV 38 43 55 59 70 46 29 4 23 0 11 38 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1181 1124 1068 1015 963 860 734 597 465 391 334 285 252 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.3 147.8 148.3 148.8 149.2 150.1 151.1 152.1 152.9 153.5 154.0 154.4 154.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 31 31 30 29 31 31 35 32 29 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 6. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 35. 36. 29. 27. 24. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##