* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 34 36 36 34 30 27 24 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 34 36 36 34 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 25 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 6 7 6 9 12 18 20 20 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -7 -7 -6 -4 -5 -2 -1 1 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 229 239 240 227 204 234 226 219 219 226 216 227 219 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 158 157 159 161 162 162 163 162 162 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 5 8 6 8 6 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 79 79 76 73 73 75 75 73 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 28 21 21 13 17 24 33 16 10 4 13 200 MB DIV 107 117 82 66 87 102 110 89 93 60 43 41 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 361 349 341 336 331 339 325 234 146 74 -5 -65 -129 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.8 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.0 96.4 96.7 97.1 97.4 97.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 28 34 36 36 36 42 48 49 11 51 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. 10. 7. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/24/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING