* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 39 41 43 45 47 50 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 39 41 43 45 47 50 50 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 35 37 40 43 46 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 20 20 17 12 18 12 16 16 17 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 276 276 266 269 279 270 279 262 259 226 236 228 279 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 136 138 143 151 156 156 156 156 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 121 123 127 134 136 134 132 134 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 45 44 43 43 43 44 43 43 44 48 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 53 56 47 30 24 19 10 24 10 5 -6 200 MB DIV 7 11 24 19 9 17 0 11 9 10 -10 1 -13 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1771 1808 1845 1871 1897 1958 1953 1913 1888 1852 1829 1752 1649 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.4 23.9 24.0 23.9 23.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 45.6 45.4 45.7 46.0 46.4 47.4 48.1 48.5 48.9 49.1 49.9 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 4 2 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 11 11 14 16 18 19 21 20 23 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 15. 17. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/24/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED