* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 54 55 50 46 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 54 55 50 46 42 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 52 51 48 45 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 10 8 4 0 7 10 17 22 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -7 -7 0 0 -1 1 0 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 356 353 351 4 358 359 26 267 257 271 264 259 262 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 153 152 151 151 152 150 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 59 61 63 66 65 64 63 63 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 10 12 13 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -2 6 6 14 15 28 29 34 37 51 50 52 200 MB DIV 40 43 36 58 68 34 31 21 21 18 33 46 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 3 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1137 1076 1016 953 891 766 617 453 330 241 189 158 153 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.3 148.8 149.4 149.9 151.0 152.2 153.4 154.3 155.0 155.5 155.9 156.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 32 30 29 32 28 29 28 28 30 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 25. 20. 16. 12. 10. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##