* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 26 26 25 21 20 20 21 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 26 26 25 21 23 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 23 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 5 7 12 13 17 25 28 29 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 246 245 258 230 240 264 253 243 230 240 234 241 225 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 157 158 160 162 163 163 163 162 160 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 79 77 73 71 70 70 68 68 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 16 9 7 2 18 21 18 15 15 5 23 200 MB DIV 100 68 48 72 91 80 92 81 67 44 2 3 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 340 336 333 336 350 371 278 196 105 3 -85 -177 -231 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.8 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.6 93.1 93.6 94.1 95.2 96.1 96.8 97.2 97.6 97.9 98.1 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 32 35 35 35 36 40 51 55 12 53 50 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 6. 5. 1. 0. 0. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/24/15 06 UTC ## ##