* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 37 38 41 43 45 47 50 52 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 37 38 41 43 45 47 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 33 33 35 38 42 45 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 21 20 18 17 15 15 12 18 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 1 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 276 265 267 279 285 270 290 256 247 224 214 249 298 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 134 135 142 148 153 156 158 158 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 117 118 119 126 130 133 134 138 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 46 46 48 47 47 44 44 45 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 57 48 48 33 23 20 1 3 0 15 11 6 -3 200 MB DIV 6 27 17 9 9 4 -8 5 9 -4 5 0 -1 700-850 TADV 7 6 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1859 1893 1928 1957 1988 2040 2068 2020 1940 1849 1732 1608 1456 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.7 24.0 23.9 23.3 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.9 44.8 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.5 46.3 47.1 48.0 48.9 49.9 51.1 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 17 17 18 20 20 19 20 20 23 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/24/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED