* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 40 40 35 34 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 40 40 35 34 31 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 29 28 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 9 7 9 13 12 18 20 19 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -9 -7 -4 -2 0 3 1 -2 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 321 324 334 320 308 283 268 249 254 271 272 272 274 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 148 147 148 147 147 149 152 151 152 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 58 59 61 64 61 61 59 61 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 8 10 16 16 22 10 8 19 29 29 44 200 MB DIV 42 34 43 54 43 33 37 23 4 25 54 51 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 7 5 3 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1013 950 887 825 762 615 452 362 330 277 226 260 320 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 3 3 5 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 27 28 30 35 50 46 41 33 27 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 15. 15. 10. 9. 6. 6. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##