* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962015 09/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 26 19 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 26 19 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 12 13 16 22 28 30 36 38 41 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 3 2 1 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 312 320 311 295 288 264 258 253 254 257 261 260 265 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 147 148 148 147 145 145 145 145 143 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 58 59 63 64 61 53 49 46 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 10 8 10 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 3 7 14 16 21 13 19 21 31 25 24 30 200 MB DIV 31 30 26 21 28 40 30 26 2 15 30 5 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 2 -1 -5 -1 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 930 864 799 718 637 468 298 190 153 148 147 199 274 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.4 17.6 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.1 149.5 150.1 150.7 151.8 152.8 153.2 153.4 153.4 153.4 152.9 152.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 4 2 1 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 27 31 34 50 46 47 50 50 49 44 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. 3. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 1. -6. -6. -11. -14. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962015 INVEST 09/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##