* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 25 26 24 25 20 19 16 17 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 25 25 26 29 24 23 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 20 23 25 26 27 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 17 17 22 24 22 23 20 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -5 -5 -4 0 -1 1 0 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 239 229 242 248 241 235 237 220 204 201 194 213 202 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 161 161 158 156 156 158 162 158 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 77 79 77 77 74 75 74 78 75 77 75 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 20 19 26 44 49 56 51 51 59 60 64 200 MB DIV 63 67 66 68 84 110 80 85 81 57 92 85 79 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -3 7 4 LAND (KM) 211 173 145 106 70 12 -97 -155 11 24 119 327 267 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.3 22.2 24.3 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.5 91.8 92.1 92.4 92.7 92.4 91.9 91.4 90.7 90.0 89.4 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 45 42 39 29 48 0 39 24 29 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -1. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 5. 0. -1. -4. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/24/15 18 UTC ## ##