* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 33 37 41 42 44 45 48 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 33 37 41 42 44 45 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 33 37 39 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 20 17 19 17 17 18 25 19 22 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 -4 -3 0 2 5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 267 278 282 272 269 285 252 244 241 262 270 294 314 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 143 147 155 157 156 157 159 160 161 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 123 126 130 137 135 132 133 136 139 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -56.1 -55.8 -56.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 40 40 38 36 39 43 46 45 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 61 48 38 39 36 17 3 28 24 15 12 1 10 200 MB DIV 18 0 2 3 1 -5 0 5 0 10 -17 -8 -8 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1964 1994 2025 2042 2057 2013 1953 1911 1876 1810 1706 1599 1498 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.8 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.4 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.3 45.4 45.8 46.1 47.2 48.0 48.5 48.9 49.6 50.7 51.7 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 6 4 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 20 20 19 24 23 22 21 20 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 11. 12. 14. 15. 18. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/25/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)