* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 18 19 21 24 24 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 23 25 26 27 30 32 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 22 25 26 27 29 30 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 18 19 16 19 22 15 17 11 18 22 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -6 -5 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 237 253 275 265 255 253 242 253 230 224 213 229 231 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 161 162 159 156 156 158 163 158 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 5 7 6 8 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 77 77 78 79 76 74 70 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 13 18 26 35 17 10 35 39 46 32 0 200 MB DIV 65 84 89 89 83 86 74 67 72 50 85 79 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 4 7 16 29 LAND (KM) 200 150 110 60 10 -87 -222 -92 -88 46 279 280 70 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.3 16.6 18.1 19.8 21.8 24.1 26.9 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.4 91.7 91.8 92.0 91.9 91.2 90.5 89.7 88.9 88.3 87.9 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 44 39 19 46 0 22 28 18 37 35 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 00 UTC ## ##