* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 38 43 44 47 47 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 38 43 44 47 47 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 40 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 21 19 23 24 15 17 21 18 14 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 4 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 279 266 262 272 250 250 224 252 260 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 148 152 156 157 159 159 160 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 125 127 131 134 136 134 136 138 139 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 41 40 36 37 40 40 42 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 44 43 40 30 11 15 30 16 13 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -1 -1 0 0 3 8 10 -3 -2 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1989 2017 2045 2055 2048 1982 1930 1879 1797 1713 1606 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.1 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 45.5 45.8 46.2 46.7 47.6 48.3 48.8 49.5 50.3 51.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 20 19 18 21 24 22 21 23 29 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 14. 17. 17. 21. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/25/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)