* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX CP062015 09/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 37 33 31 28 26 28 28 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 37 33 31 28 26 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 30 28 27 26 25 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 15 15 17 17 22 20 21 17 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 313 297 290 281 268 267 252 261 255 268 264 274 254 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 147 147 149 150 152 152 152 152 154 156 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 60 61 62 61 58 59 61 62 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 18 21 18 6 10 12 38 42 53 65 80 200 MB DIV 30 16 19 20 22 25 17 0 23 44 50 22 22 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 4 7 3 1 0 1 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 799 721 644 563 482 348 238 168 206 278 327 400 491 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.0 150.4 151.0 151.5 152.8 154.1 155.4 156.4 157.2 157.7 158.4 159.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 33 40 50 44 35 31 30 33 36 41 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 SIX 09/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 SIX 09/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##