* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 22 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 22 20 22 25 27 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 21 25 27 26 25 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 14 24 27 23 26 29 36 46 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -6 -4 0 -1 4 2 5 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 270 283 273 258 251 248 233 230 220 199 210 204 222 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 28.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 161 164 162 158 157 160 162 152 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 75 75 74 77 75 72 67 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 19 24 26 38 56 51 68 54 28 16 -26 200 MB DIV 86 82 84 107 106 93 101 78 60 75 56 52 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 -9 7 1 4 LAND (KM) 228 193 170 156 142 39 -118 -11 100 211 379 45 -111 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.5 20.5 22.9 25.7 28.7 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.7 93.1 93.4 93.7 93.6 93.1 92.4 91.4 90.6 89.7 89.4 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 7 8 10 12 14 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 39 37 36 27 48 42 29 40 39 31 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 06 UTC ## ##