* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 39 42 44 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 39 42 44 48 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 23 22 22 22 24 26 29 31 34 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 22 24 18 16 13 20 10 15 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 3 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 271 265 276 278 251 240 237 250 251 291 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 145 150 153 154 156 158 159 160 163 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 126 129 133 135 132 133 138 141 145 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 42 40 37 40 40 41 40 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 34 24 11 0 18 25 18 16 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 0 -4 2 1 0 5 12 12 -19 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -3 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2043 2079 2114 2116 2085 2043 1983 1888 1761 1579 1360 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.8 25.0 24.5 23.6 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.3 45.6 46.1 46.5 47.2 47.9 48.7 49.7 51.4 53.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 7 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 21 22 21 21 24 25 21 21 32 39 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 23. 27. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/25/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)