* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 37 35 30 28 25 26 27 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 37 35 30 28 25 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 38 36 32 30 28 27 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 14 15 16 19 18 23 19 24 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 0 0 0 -3 2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 300 291 275 274 278 264 259 259 264 258 265 268 258 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 149 149 150 152 151 151 152 153 155 158 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 61 62 60 59 59 59 58 57 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 24 24 15 0 3 21 37 47 53 71 88 200 MB DIV 17 21 24 41 37 41 14 16 26 44 36 18 21 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 5 5 7 4 1 1 1 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 729 652 575 484 394 277 226 228 241 269 309 398 542 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.5 151.0 151.8 152.5 153.9 155.2 156.1 156.7 157.2 157.7 158.7 160.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 3 3 2 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 33 45 47 33 28 29 33 37 42 50 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. 0. -5. -7. -10. -9. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##